https://dair.nps.edu/handle/123456789/13 This collection includes graduate student research conducted at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) on defense-focused acquisition topics and supported by sponsored funding through the Acquisition Research Program (ARP). Fri, 05 Jun 2026 21:14:18 GMT 2026-06-05T21:14:18Z https://dair.nps.edu/handle/123456789/5501 Title: Enhancing Decision Accuracy in DoD Acquisition: Integrating Artificial Intelligence with Reference Class Forecasting Authors: Monte Ellis Abstract: "This capstone examines how integrating artificial intelligence (AI) with reference class forecasting (RCF) can improve decision accuracy in Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition. Persistent cost overruns and schedule delays, driven by optimism bias and planning fallacy, highlight the limits of traditional forecasting. These shortfalls routinely undermine mission readiness and erode fiscal discipline. While RCF enhances accuracy by anchoring estimates in historical data, its use in the DoD is limited by scalability and data-access challenges. This study uses a qualitative design combining policy review, comparative case analysis, and conceptual modeling. The findings indicate that AI can support the automation of reference-class construction from unstructured acquisition data and enable probabilistic forecasting, improving cost and schedule realism. Supported by prior literature and simulated analysis, the results also suggest that this approach can strengthen technology readiness assessments (TRA) by incorporating risk-based probability bands, thereby highlighting the value of probabilistic evidence in early acquisition decision-making. Recommendations include phased AI–RCF implementation, governance standards for transparency, and integration into milestone artifacts like TRAs and Life cycle Sustainment Plans. Institutionalizing this approach would embed empirical rigor into acquisition decisions, reduce systemic risk, and advance the DoD’s shift toward data-driven reform." Description: Acquisition Management / Graduate Student Fri, 05 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://dair.nps.edu/handle/123456789/5501 2026-06-05T00:00:00Z https://dair.nps.edu/handle/123456789/5500 Title: Bridging the Gaps: A DOTMLPF-P Assessment of Suicide Intervention and Prevention Efforts Across the Military Authors: Emily Kosanovich; Son Tran Abstract: Suicide within the Department of Defense (DoD) is a persistent and complex problem despite the numerous prevention programs, policy reforms, and increased behavioral health resources. This study hypothesizes that current suicide prevention efforts are limited by inconsistent implementation and insufficient integration of programs across the DoD. Using the DOTMLPF-P framework, this study conducts a comparative analysis of suicide prevention efforts across the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps. Information was gathered from DoD suicide reports, Government Accountability Office findings, RAND research, Service level doctrine, and existing program evaluations. The analysis found that suicide prevention efforts across the Services operate as parallel systems rather than a unified prevention program. Prevention efforts are strongest after suicide risk becomes observable. Significant gaps were identified in leadership education, organizational coordination, personnel distribution, training design, and coordination between clinical and non-clinical prevention systems. The findings suggest that suicide prevention in the DoD functions as a reactive system rather than a preventative one. Recommendations include strengthening early intervention capabilities, standardizing prevention implementation across the Services, and integrating more efficient prevention methods that increase integration across DOTMLPF-P domains for a more proactive suicide prevention system. Description: Human Resources / Graduate Student Fri, 05 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://dair.nps.edu/handle/123456789/5500 2026-06-05T00:00:00Z https://dair.nps.edu/handle/123456789/5499 Title: Category Management Feasibility for R706-Coded Service Acquisitions: A Comparative Analysis of the Three Marine Corps Contracting Offices in Marine Corps Regional Contracting Offices Authors: Jeremiah Dye Abstract: "This study evaluates the feasibility of applying category management (CM) principles to Product Service Code (PSC) R706 logistics support services across three high-spend United States Marine Corps (USMC) contracting offices. Between fiscal years (FY) 2020 and 2025, the USMC obligated approximately $1.32 billion under PSC R706, yet procurement practices remained decentralized. Rather than viewing fragmentation as a policy failure, this research argues that contracting behavior reflects practical responses to organizational and operational constraints. Using a mixed-methods approach, the study analyzes procurement data from SAM.gov and incorporates qualitative insights from contracting personnel. Findings show heavy reliance on firm-fixed-price contracts, inconsistent use of indefinite-delivery indefinite-quantity (IDIQ) vehicles, and localized PSC and North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) coding practices. These patterns suggest limited enterprise coordination and uneven application of CM principles. Applying Principal–Agent theory, the study finds that operational tempo, personnel rotation, and limited centralized oversight contribute to fragmented procurement behavior. The study concludes that effective CM implementation requires stronger governance mechanisms, interoperable data systems, and formal coordination structures. A proposed CM Action Team model offers a framework to improve coordination efficiency while preserving operational flexibility. " Description: Contract Management / Graduate Student Fri, 05 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://dair.nps.edu/handle/123456789/5499 2026-06-05T00:00:00Z https://dair.nps.edu/handle/123456789/5498 Title: The Modernization Dilemma: A Case Study of Systematic Failures in U.S. Army Acquisition Through the Lens of the M10 Booker Authors: Richard Blakesleay; ZacharyBrittingham; Robert Heath Abstract: This case study examines programmatic issues that lead to cancelation, focusing specifically on the M10 Booker program. This research collects and analyzes available data to determine the root cause of failure for the M10 using the Ishikawa diagram and compares these findings to other high-level programs determining potential commonalities. The goal of this research is to determine lessons learned that could be applied to future acquisition strategies to help prevent potential cancelations or determine indicators that programs are on an unrecoverable path. The findings suggest that each program had similar issues and some differentiating concerns; the common trend among the three programs, and reason for the cancelation determination, was based on the evolving demands of future combat that the current materiel solutions could not satisfy. With this finding, the research group makes the recommendation to continuously revalidate programs on a new assessment cycle and ensure that materiel solutions address a validated gap for current and future warfare. Description: Acquisition Management / Graduate Student Fri, 05 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://dair.nps.edu/handle/123456789/5498 2026-06-05T00:00:00Z