Acquisition Risks in a World of Joint Capabilities: A Study of Interdependency Complexity

Abstract

This research examines DoD acquisition from the context of a network of interrelated programs that exchange and share resources for the purpose of establishing joint capabilities. The research focuses on the joint space of major defense acquisition programs (MDAPs): the space where transactions form interdependencies among MDAP programs. The research is especially salient because, to date, little is known about the risks associated with interdependent activities. This paper provides a short description of some of the network characteristics of the funding and data interdependencies of major defense acquisition programs. Where the discussion focused on descriptions, recent advances allow the ability to test the structural descriptions on program performance. In exponential random graph models (ERGM), the ties serve as predictors of performance. ERGMs are capable of testing a host of structural arrangements for their influence on outcomes. Employing Markov Chain Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood Estimation techniques, probabilities can be ascertained. Over the coming months the structural nature of the interdependencies will be analyzed and evaluated for their influence on acquisition performance.