Toward Realistic Acquisition Schedule Estimates

Abstract

Time needed to develop and field new military capabilities is becoming an increasingly serious problem. Among other things, development times have steadily increased. In this paper, we attempt to structure the schedule estimating problem, present some initial results, and propose a research agenda to improve schedule estimating. Accordingly, we seek preliminary answers to the following questions. What is the current state of the art for estimating acquisition program schedules? What should it be? What are salient features of program management trade-offs, especially between schedule and cost (which are related in complex, imperfectly understood ways)? In what areas should air combat performance measures need updating? What are the elements of a research agenda for learning more about schedule estimating? We also present some preliminary results in the form a narrative case study of the F-35 program and empirical estimates of schedules.