Realistic Acquisition Schedule Estimates: A Follow-On Inquiry

Abstract

In a 2016 proceedings paper for this symposium (Franck, Hildebrandt, & Udis, 2016), we outlined and discussed a research agenda with an aim of more realistic acquisition program scheduling estimates, especially for the development (SSD) phase. This paper is intended to continue pursuit of that agenda, with the aim of demonstrating its feasibility and discussing methods of analysis. Accordingly, this paper is presented in four parts: the promise of Systems Dynamics as a schedule-estimating paradigm; a preliminary case study of cost-performance-schedule tradeoffs in the F-35 program; the development of measures of effectiveness for contemporary air-to-air combat; and finally an examination of data sources and empirical models for program and contract schedule uncertainty.