System Maturity Estimation During Program Execution

Abstract

Defense acquisition programs integrate mature and immature new technologies into developing and in-service systems to offset future threats and needs. Mature technologies may be nearly ready-for-use; less mature technologies may mitigate anticipated threats or create new capabilities but may also take more time to develop and integrate into a system leading to schedule growth. The Department of Defense uses Technology Readiness Assessments to assess system technology maturity and to satisfy statutory requirements to evaluate system technical readiness prior to starting system development. The Government Accountability Office independently conducts annual assessments of selected weapon system programs. These are useful but require program offices to expend significant time and effort as part of program execution. This research examines different measures of technology and system maturity and identifies maturity-related factors. Regression analysis is used to identify statistically significant predictors of program technology and system maturity and schedule growth. The research results provide program offices insight into technology and system maturity and the sources of schedule growth based on resource, programmatic, operational testing, and schedule-related factors, allowing them to monitor and adjust acquisition program planning and execution.