Analysis of Defense Products Contract Trends, 1990-2014

Abstract

Previous research by CSIS has created a taxonomy of the universe of DoD products using U.S. government Product and Service Codes (PSCs) to separate DoD products into ten product categories. This research focuses on four areas related to both historical and recent trends for those defense products: Historical trends in competition for DoD products. Changes in the industrial base for DoD products. The impact of sequestration and its aftermath on DoD products contracting overall, by component, and by product category. Trends in other contract characteristics: contract pricing mechanism, contract vehicle, and contract size. The research broadens the scope of examination of products beyond just MDAP, adds in contracting data from pre-2000, and provides an assessment of how the post-Cold War drawdown of the 1990s affected the industrial base across the full range of products acquisition. It also allows for a comparison of this history with the changes seen to date happening as a result of the current defense drawdown, sequestration and its aftermath. While the effects of the post-Cold War industry consolidation (i.e. the Last Supper) are overwhelming clear in the contracting data from the late 1990s, there is as yet no similar clear trend that has occurred as a result of the current drawdown. However, it is possible that another structural change in the defense industry could be occurring, but that it is not yet evident in the contracting data due to time lags in acquisition.