System Development and Risk Propagation in Systems-of-Systems

Abstract

The emphasis of the Department of Defense on capability-based acquisition has led to the simultaneous development of systems that must eventually interact within a system-of-systems. Thus, system development and acquisition processes encounter interdependencies that generate complexity and risk. The authors prior work has developed a Computational Exploratory Model to simulate the development processes of these complex networks of systems intended for a system-of-systems capability. The model's goal is to understand the impact of system-specific risk and system interdependencies on development time. The progress documented in this paper focuses on the quantification of risk propagation and the impact of network topologies on the propagation of disruptions. The improved model enables trade studies that differentiate the effectiveness of alternate configurations of constituent systems and that quantify the impact of varying levels of interdependencies on the timely completion of a project that aims to achieve a desired capability level.