PEO-IWS ACB Insertion Portfolio Optimization

Abstract

Program Executive Office Integrated Warfare Systems (PEO-IWS) engaged a team from the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) to conduct a pilot study to apply the Knowledge Valued Added + Real Options + Integrated Risk Management + Portfolio Optimization (KVA + RO + IRM + PO) method to estimate the value stream created by the capabilities to be inserted within the Aegis Weapons System (AWS) through the Advanced Capability Build (ACB) process as described in the PEO-IWS Surface Combat System Acquisition Management Plan (AMP) given budget constraints and ship industrial availability schedules. The goal was to determine what order of capability insertion provided the best returns within an optimized portfolio, treating each capability as a real option. The KVA + RO + IRM + PO approach was used to estimate the warfighter value delivered by each capability within the context of a portfolio-optimization, integrated risk-management model. The results provide a set of options based on selected constraints for insertion of the capabilities over the period of interest (Fiscal Years 2014-2025) based on an optimized portfolio model. For detailed information on the KVA + RO +IRM + PO approach, see the technical appendix to this report.