A Better Basis for Ship Acquisition Decisions

Abstract

Naval ship acquisition is widely thought to be too expensive, too long, too uncertain, and too risky. Throughout the ship development process, decision makers at all levels are afflicted by unreliable estimates and projections of cost, performance, schedule, and risk of competing alternatives. In this context, decision makers includes senior Navy leadership, program officers, and ship design managers, all of whom make decisions affecting the eventual product. How can estimates and projections of cost, performance, schedule, and risk be improved? To some extent, decision making in the face of uncertainty is an inescapable part of the development of naval warships due to their unrivaled complexity. This is especially true in the early stages of ship development. However, analysis indicates that the quality of cost, performance, schedule, and risk estimates could be substantially improved by actions addressing the root causes of poor estimates. This paper examines four root causes of poor cost, performance, schedule, and risk estimates and projections in the context of ship information development and flow. Eight solution vectors are identified that can provide higher quality estimates and projections earlier in the design process, reducing the uncertainties faced by decision makers, saving expensive engineering labor, and increasing assurance that the delivered ship will satisfy requirements. The relationship of particular solution vectors to the particular root causes is provided in tabular and discussion form.