Capability and Development Time Trade-off Analysis in Systems-of-Systems

Abstract

Capability-based acquisition has led to the simultaneous development of systems that must eventually interact within a system-of-systems (or major sub-systems that must integrate on a single platform). The necessary interdependencies between systems also generate complexity and can increase development risk. Trades between capability and risk are essential during analysis of alternatives in pre-acquisition phases. For example, while legacy assets can potentially provide a certain level of capability with relatively low risk, their eventual capability may be restricted because of some specific characteristic or inherent rigidity. These features create a trade-off space between development risk and capability potential of a system. Existing tools for such trades can be cumbersome and non-intuitive when complexity is high. The authors prior work has developed a Computational Exploratory Model to simulate the development process dynamics for these complex networks of systems intended for a system-of-systems capability. The progress documented in this paper couples the computational model with a capability module applied to the Airborne Laser (ABL) system and presents an exemplary analysis of alternatives by comparing expected development time and capability level under certain probabilities of disruption.