The Infantry Maturity Quotient: An Analysis of the Manpower Effects of Maturing the Marine Infantry

Abstract

The composition of the Marine infantry is evolving to meet future battlefield demands. According to the Marine Corps’ Force Design 2030, mature infantry resembling special operations and reconnaissance forces is required to achieve emerging operational requirements. This led to the proposal of a “maturity quotient”—wherein the status quo infantry rifle squad transitions from a 1:12 first-term enlistee to career Marine ratio to a mature 3:9 ratio—to guide planners. This thesis develops a fixed inventory Markov chain model to forecast the timeline and effects of maturing the infantry in accordance with Force Design 2030. This thesis further applies statistical inference and data visualization to explore the impacts of increased physical and cognitive standards. Marine Corps’ Total Force Data Warehouse provided enlisted infantry (03xx) fiscal year snapshots from 2011 to 2021. The findings show that the Marine Corps can achieve the mature infantry by fiscal year 2027 through a reduction in total accessions and achieving specific rank targets. The Marine Corps currently retains smarter and fitter infantry Marines but not at the level of the Recon/MARSOC community.