Guiding the Hands of Time: Toward Reliable Schedule Estimates

Abstract

This paper continues our research agenda concerning advancing the state of the art for estimating defense acquisition program schedules. Accurate schedule estimates provide valuable benchmarks for program managers and reliable dates for the availability of new systems for warfighters. However, most schedule estimates are not correct, with actual time to complete significantly greater initial estimates. This happens for several reasons. One of them is the inherent complexity of modern defense acquisition programs. Another is the generally unfavorable influence of factors outside the program (and program management control). While achieving improved estimates is worthwhile, we also conclude that accurate estimates are generally unobtainable. However, we remain convinced that improvements are possible, which benefit all concerned.