Improved Forecasting of Defense Acquisition Program Performance Using Digital Twin Models of a Revenue Centric Versus Cost Centered Approach (Enhanced Earned Value Management (E2VM))

Abstract

This paper represents a new approach to defense acquisition program forecasting during the development phase of the program life cycle. It will be the first of three research papers that will attempt to improve insight into how a program performs and will offer a method by which future programs offices will be able to simulate their program before beginning in order to develop an optimal acquisition strategy. Specifically, the purpose of this research is to explore if a digital twin of the defense acquisition development phase of an acquisition program of record can enhance a program manager's decision-making ability by revealing unforeseen patterns in program behavior. Additionally, this research will demonstrate a new way of measuring value and return on investment of a defense program of record, to provide decision-makers with an alternative to traditional methods of decision-making that are based upon budget and cost comparisons. This paper represents the initial research proposal and method, which will set the conditions for exploration of new theory and methods of how complex programs could be planned and executed in the future.