The View from Beijing: An Alternate Perspective on Cross-Straits Invasion

Abstract

"The so-called Taiwan Strait crises will likely continue until Taiwan is reunified or China abandons its claim. Currently, China has a few options for reunification; this research takes the novel approach of looking at the problem from China’s perspective, specifically: What factors would give China’s command pause when considering an amphibious invasion of Taiwan? What is China’s threshold for loss? The analysis uses straightforward analytic methods to examine several vignettes of a single beach landing of Taiwan. Results are delivered in terms of combat losses and the time it could take for China to establish a lodgment on Taiwan. We have found that loss of the PRC’s landing forces early in the invasion or no longer having the capability of conducing anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) would give its invasion pause and constitute a strategic loss for Beijing. Furthermore, it is crucial for Beijing to first determine whether it has a fait accompli over Taiwan before committing to forceful reunification. Understanding the history of the China-Taiwan tensions and the worries China may have during an invasion may help determine military and political actions necessary for Taiwan and the United States to revoke or suspend its potential fait accompli in the near future."