Risky Fitness: Does Fitness Level at Entry Impact Length of Service?

Abstract

"Achieving recruiting targets is a key issue for all services in the Australian Defence Force, and the Australian Army is considering lowering fitness standards to confront this challenge. This thesis evaluates the effects of fitness on initial training success and length of service in the Australian Army. Using individual data on Officers and Soldiers from 2003 to 2023, I categorize Australian Army applicants into fitness groups based on their Pre-enlistment Fitness Assessment results. Logistic regressions show that Officers with a low fitness level are 1.12 times more likely to fail to complete initial training compared to Officers with a high level of fitness, and Soldiers with a low fitness level are 1.23 times more likely than Soldiers with a high level of fitness. Comparing low to high fitness levels I find a significant reduction in retention for Officers (10% fewer) and Soldiers (20% fewer) after six years of service. These findings have important implications for the Australian Army as they consider lowering physical fitness standards to boost recruiting numbers. My survival analysis shows that fitness is crucially important for maximizing retention in the Australian Army, while highlighting the effectiveness of innovative recruiting programs such as the Army Pre-Conditioning Program."