Quantifying Mavericks: Institutional Fit, Risk, and Reward in Military Organizations

Abstract

Militaries depend on procedural compliance, yet strategic adaptation comes from individuals willing to challenge prevailing assumptions. Despite historical accounts of “mavericks,” the concept is largely descriptive. This study develops and tests a measurable construct of military maverickism using personality data linked to longitudinal career outcomes. Drawing on five-factor personality theory, the Dominance x Openness x Exertion – Agreeableness (DOX-A) construct captures assertiveness, mental range, drive, and reduced conformity using facets from the Tailored Adaptive Personality Assessment System (TAPAS). The sample includes 49,393 enlisted accessions from FY09–FY13, followed to FY18. Logistic regression models estimate the relationship between standardized maverickism and selection into Special Forces, enlisted-to-officer commissioning, demotion, and discharge with a General characterization, controlling for Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) percentile and demographics. Maverickism has meaningful variation and predicts exceptional performance and higher disciplinary risk. Cognitive capacity significantly moderates these effects: above-median AFQT reduces adverse outcomes and amplifies positive ones. These findings identify a measurable tradeoff. Maverick traits generate asymmetric institutional returns conditional on cognitive capacity, providing an empirical foundation for managing unconventional talent in hierarchical organizations.