Measuring the Return on Investment and Real Option Value of Weather Sensor Bundles for Air Force Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Abstract

This research supports Air Force A2I leadership by providing a comprehensive business case analysis that estimates the overall value of investing in, acquiring, and implementing WeatherNow technology. It provides a risk-based assessment for technology portfolio optimization. The WeatherNow technology in this research refers to an advanced weather forecasting software suite and an onboard weather sensor. The software suite collects, decodes, and processes space-based, airborne, and surface observations used in conjunction with numerical weather prediction models. Using advanced algorithms, data fusion techniques, and rapid update capability, it provides comprehensive environmental intelligence products, improved asset protection, and decreased operational risk. The onboard weather sensor provides real-time weather information about icing, humidity, and cloud top heights directly to RPA aircraft operators. The sensor also provides continuous weather data in otherwise data-deprived areas. The software suite and sensor were built to be integrated to provide timely, relevant, and mission-specific environmental intelligence, early threat detection for icing or instrument meteorological conditions (IMC), and overall enhanced ISR collection capability.