Acquisition Risks in a World of Joint Capabilities: A Study of Interdependency Complexity

Abstract

Environmental uncertainty has particular ramifications for programs that seek the benefits of interdependent coordinated action. This research examined the influence of a number of interdependencies on major defense acquisition program (MDAP) performance. The analysis found that interdependencies, when defined by joint status, number of program elements, or number of data connections do not appear to exhibit any ill-toward effects. However, the results illustrated that programs exert cascading influences on neighboring programs. The examination of whether MDAPs that share a program element influence each other was supported for both program acquisition unit cost (PAUC) growth and estimation cost variance. Moreover, upstream program PAUC growth appeared to influence both downstream PAUC growth and downstream estimation cost variance. The upstream programs estimation cost variance also demonstrated a positive effect on the downstream programs estimation cost variance. The findings illustrate that the performance of interdependent organizations are susceptible to the performance shortfalls of their partners.