An Analysis of TRL-Based Cost and Schedule Models

Abstract

The GAO's, NASA's, and the DoD's adoption of the technology readiness level (TRL) scale to improve technology management has led to the emergence of many TRL-based models that are used to monitor technology maturation, mitigate technology program risk, characterize TRL transition times, or model schedule and cost risk for individual technologies, as well as technology systems and portfolios. In the first part of this paper, we develop a theoretical framework to classify those models based on the (often implicit) assumptions they make; we then propose modifications and alternative models to make full use of the assumptions. In the second part, we depart from those assumptions and present a new decision-based framework for cost and schedule joint modeling.