Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://dair.nps.edu/handle/123456789/1612
Title: Experience Searching for Causal Factors in Personal Process Student Data
Authors: William R. Nichols
Michael Konrad
Keywords: Student Data
Tetrad Tool's
PC
FGES
Personal Software Process
PSP
Empirical Research
Gaussian
Linear Effects
Issue Date: 30-Apr-2018
Publisher: Acquisition Research Program
Citation: Published--Unlimited Distribution
Series/Report no.: Acquisition Research
SYM-AM-18-096
Abstract: The objective of this study is to apply recently developed techniques to infer causality from observational software engineering data. Determining causation rather than just correlation is fundamental to selecting factors that control outcomes such as cost, schedule, and quality. The Tetrad tool's PC and FGES causal search algorithms were applied to software engineering data from 4940 programs written in the C programming language collected during Personal Software Process (PSP) training. PSP programs have previously been used in empirical research quantitative relationships between developer and project factors. Both algorithms successfully identified the expected relationships and did not find contradictory or implausible associations. Many of the available causal inference search algorithms require Gaussian distributional families with linear effects. The linear relationship may be especially important for software engineering research and may require prior knowledge and data transformation. Because software engineering has depended on small-scale, low-power experiments, often using non-representative students, inferring causal relationships would expand the insight available to researchers. Inferring causation from observational software engineering data shows much promise, but is currently limited by researcher understanding of the capability and limits of causal inference, the quality of the underlying data, and the general requirement for linear effects.
Description: Acquisition Management / Defense Acquisition Community Contributor
URI: https://dair.nps.edu/handle/123456789/1612
Appears in Collections:Annual Acquisition Research Symposium Proceedings & Presentations

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