A Trainee Demand Analysis for the Expansion of the Marine Corps Embassy Security Group

Abstract

On September 11, 2012, the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, Libya, was attacked, resulting in the death of four United States citizens, including Ambassador Christopher Stevens. Prior to Bengazi, the Marine Corps Embassy Security Group (MCESG) held a total strength of about 1,400 Marines, of which 1,196 were Marine Corps Security Guards (MSGs). In response to the deadly attack, Congress authorized 1,000 new MSGs through the 2013 National Defense Authorization Act, creating additional protection for U.S. diplomatic facilities worldwide. In this thesis I examine the growth requirements needed to support the MCESG's expansion demands to produce MSGs at maximum capacity in the coming three to four years, and I propose an operational, easily adjustable methodology to assist MCESG operation personnel plans for expansion and future force sustainment. The methodology accounts for uncertainty in the decision-making process by incorporating Monte Carlo simulation techniques. I also provide in this thesis an easy to use interface built as a Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) UserForm, meant as a simple and effective tool that can assist planners in standardizing procedures at the operational level. The findings of the thesis indicate that the proposed methodology could yield significant savings in terms of manpower and training requirements for the MCESG.