Significant Factors in Predicting Promotion to Major, Lieutenant Colonel, and Colonel in the United States Marine Corps

Abstract

Multiple factors influence a Marine officer's probability of promotion. Currently, MMOA-4 counselors are not able to provide career advice based on statistical analysis of the multitude of variables that could be significant in an officer's potential to advance to the next higher grade. Development of a statistical counseling model provides MMOA-4 the ability to examine an officer's current predicted probability of promotion as well as his future potential for advancement given a set of possible career choices. Such a model may increase the effectiveness of the career counseling process and potentially impact USMC officer retention and performance. This study makes recommendations to improve the Marine Corps Performance Evaluation System (PES). The researcher's analysis of 8 years of fitness report data indicates that current procedures (which use raw numbers to evaluate the effects of the Reviewing Officer's (RO) assessment) should be changed to a percentile system. The current system only provides a generalized output that has limited value in fitness report analysis. The raw numbers of the comparative assessment limit the possibility of comparing officers across a grade for each RO. The exact value of the percentile system allows for officers to be differentiated and compared across grade. This is similar to the relative value system used for Reporting Senior (RS) markings. This new system will allow officers to be shown as below average, average or above average for each RO, similarly to what is currently being recorded by each RS. Ultimately, this would increase the effectiveness of retention, promotion, command, and resident school selections by empowering the board members with the ability to screen officers utilizing the RO percentile system.