A Survey and Study of the Risk Behavior of the DoD Workforce

Abstract

This research project examines the behavior of the Department of Defense (DoD) workforce hypothesis regarding risk management in weapon system development. A survey was conducted to understand how the workforce approaches risk management. Many DoD programs fall behind and suffer a cost increase and schedule delay. A recent Government Accountability Office (GAO; 2012) report stated, The total cost of DOD's 2011 portfolio of major defense acquisition programs has grown by 5 percent, in the last year.(p. 6) In addition, when compared to a program's initial plans, the cost increase is much larger: When measured from their first full estimates, the growth in total acquisition cost for these programs is 40 percent. (p. 6) Risk management is an important engineering tool for minimizing the impact of technical problems of a program. More effective risk management will lead to better managed programs. The purpose of this study is to better understand the DOD's workforce's attitude towards risk management and risk mitigation. Findings of the study will aid in improving training on risk management in order to improve the overall performance of weapon system programs. This research project is based on an online survey sent to 420 members of the DoD acquisition workforce. The survey was completed by 87 DoD workforce members in an acquisition position. The experience level of the survey participants was high, with 66% of the participants having six or more years of experience, and an average experience level for all participants of 11.0 yrs. Only 55% of the participants knew of a risk management plan for their organization. Three scenarios requiring a decision about the level of mitigation were presented to the participants. While there wasn't a single right answer to the three scenarios, the participants decisions should have been based on factors such as the product price, failure rate, likelihood of obsolescence, new technology, criticality to the mission, and so forth. However, a finding from the research is that there was a wide variation in responses to the scenarios, from not spending any on mitigation to spending an amount equal to the total value of the product or service. That is, there was no consistency in deciding on the risk mitigation plan. The participants identified important activities required for successful risk management. The seven activities named most frequently by participants were directly or indirectly related to the effectiveness of doing risk management. The activities were, analysis and assessment (97%), cooperation from others (97%), subject matter expert (SME) advice (95%), mitigation planning (93%), detailed risk management plan (92%), training (82%), and expertise in risk management (79%). Future training activities should include performing the above activities. While risk management is taught in many Defense Acquisition University (DAU) classes, the training needs to go beyond understanding likelihood, consequence, and future root cause and needs to develop skills in the seven areas described previously.