Addressing Risk in the Acquisition Lifecycle With Enterprise Simulation

Abstract

Defense acquisition is characterized by significant levels of risk throughout the lifecycle. Risk, of course, may result in undesirable outcomes. Deriving from many sources, both technical and organizational, risk is inherently a socio-technical phenomenon in enterprises such as acquisition. As such, it is difficult to address. At the same time, fiscal pressures are causing decreased funding and increased expectations for acquisition performance. This points to the importance of risk characterization and mitigation. Our previous work has focused on using simulation to model and analyze acquisition processes and incentives, to understand how they can be designed to improve outcomes. Traditional simulation analysis is not well-suited to modeling the socio-technical complexities of risk in a systematic way, though. This paper presents a decision/event network construct implemented within enterprise simulation models to represent the complexities of risk over time. The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program is analyzed with respect to risk and potential outcomes using this enterprise simulation framework. The F-35 program embodies a number of transformative approaches to the defense acquisition enterprise. Such enterprise transformation efforts are prone to substantial risk. In particular, cost and schedule risks and outcomes are studied relative to program design decisions. Risk mitigation strategies are identified and presented.