Why Do Programs Fail? An Analysis of Defense Program Manager Decision Making in Complex and Chaotic Program Environments

Abstract

How leaders make decisions in complex and chaotic environments could have a significant impact on organizational performance. This study of leaders from across the Department of Defense (DoD) will provide the foundation by which a more informed understanding of how Program Managers (PM) sense of situational reality ultimately leads to timely and relevant decisions. This study specifically focuses on the emergence of four aggregate categories; sensemaking, trust, tacit knowledge and explicit knowledge, that seem to shape the leader's reality and subsequent decision-making process in highly complex environments. I refer to the integrated nature of these categories as Nousmaking, or making reality of the situation and choices based on one's sense of the reality. Ultimately, these factors determine the velocity and quality of the decisions leading to overall organizational effectiveness. Understanding the underlying nature by which leaders gain a sense of reality within the decision-making environment will help shape future organizational structures and processes as well as leader development.