Improved Acquisition for System Sustainment: Resilient Supplier Evaluation and Selection with Bayesian Networks

Abstract

Supply networks have become more susceptible to disruptions due to a number of factors, including their increasing interconnected structure, the continued growth of global supply alternatives, and strategic outsourcing. Multi-tier supply networks in aerospace and automotive industries are particularly more exposed to disruptions, because the continuity of operations of manufacturers is highly vulnerable to disruptions of their suppliers (and of their suppliers suppliers, and so on). This paper aims to measure the resilience of manufacturers by analyzing the resilience of suppliers in multi-tier supply networks. As a result, suppliers that adversely impact the resilience of a manufacturer are highlighted, and other candidates for suppliers can be examined. We introduce metrics that quantify the resilience of suppliers as a function of their vulnerability and recoverability and quantify these metrics using Bayesian networks. Information theory is discussed as a means to rank the importance of suppliers.