Acquisition Risks in a World of Joint Capabilities

Abstract

This study reports some preliminary results of a research agenda that seeks to address the absence of tested metrics to provide early indication of the acquisition risks of interdependent programs. The overall goal of this research is to forge new ground on uncovering early indicators of interdependency acquisition risk, so appropriate governance mechanisms can then be isolated. Funding will allow the ability to 1) expand on an existing database of Major Defense Acquisition Program (MDAPs) performance data, 2) analyze the MDAPs to characterize the risks attributable to interdependence, and 3) determine whether acquisition setbacks cascade to downstream interdependent MDAP programs. The deliverables of the effort are 1) a code book of DoD data acquisition items that can be employed in future research efforts, and 2) the results of the investigation of the cascading risks of interdependent acquisition efforts. In short, preliminary results indicate that perceptions of risk may prove influential on downstream program performance. In terms of the direct influence that an upstream program's performance might exert on downstream program performance, weak, but statistically significant, relationships were noted in three areas. The next steps of the research are to 1) expand the dataset to include FY 2009 data, 2) document acquisition data, 3) collect a number of indicators on program interdependency, and 4) test a number of interdependency diversity metrics in terms of their ability to provide insights on program performance.