Strategies for Addressing Uncertain Markets and Uncertain Technologies

Abstract

Engineering involves designing solutions to meet the needs of markets or missions. Organizations would like to have the flexibility and agility to address both uncertain needs and uncertain technologies for meeting these needs. This article presents and illustrates a decision framework that enables flexibility and agility and provides guidance on when to pursue optimal, highly integrated solutions. We consider how uncertainties arise, contrasting the automotive and defense domains. We propose an approach to managing uncertainties. We consider how to represent alternative solutions and project the value of each alternative, including how market or mission requirements can be translated into system requirements. Possible use cases for our framework are discussed. A detailed case study of autonomous vehicles for enhancing the mobility of disabled and older adults is presented.