Proposed Methodology for Performance Prediction and Monitoring for an Acknowledged Systems of Systems

Abstract

Program managers (PMs) are expected to quantifiably justify that their program will result in the delivery of a system with the required performance through development. Traditionally, the PM has several technical management tools at their disposal, including Technical Performance Measures (TPMs), modeling and simulation, etc., that provide insight and predictive capability in system performance. When the program matures to a point where actual test data can be gathered, it is compared against expected system performance. The increasing use of the system of systems (SoS) model for the rapid fielding of warfighting capabilities poses new systems engineering challenges for the DoD. Due to the complex nature of SoS interdependencies, PMs are especially challenged when asked to quantifiably predict progress made toward full-capability SoS performance in an incremental development. To support the PM in making technical trades and tracking performance progress for an acknowledged SoS, the U.S. Navy (PMS 420 and SSC Pacific) have been collaborating on the development and verification of an SoS Performance Measure (SPM) tool set. The SPM tool applies a modified TPM-type approach to an SoS construct. However, instead of focusing on a single measurable technical value that can be monitored during development of an individual system, the SPM links the SoS Key Performance Parameters (KPPs) to individual component capabilities, their maturity, and their potential usage rates. The System Maturity Model (SMM), Concept of Operations (CONOPS), and usage rate variance analyses are all considered in the SPM calculation. The SPM tool will be reviewed and valuable lessons learned to date within the Mission Modules Program will be discussed.