Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://dair.nps.edu/handle/123456789/4501
Title: Assessing the Reliability of the Future Years Defense Program and Building a Forecast
Authors: Andrew Hunter, Greg Sanders
Keywords: Defense Program
Building a Forecast
negotiating
Future Years Defense Plan
Issue Date: 30-Sep-2020
Publisher: Acquisition Research Program
Citation: Published--Unlimited Distribution
Series/Report no.: Acquisition Management;CSIS-AM-20-162
Abstract: Discerning, negotiating, and communicating priorities are necessary tasks for the U.S. defense acquisition system to effectively implement its portion of the National Defense Strategy. One of the Department of Defense’s central tools for doing so is the Future Years Defense Plan (FYDP), a projection of the cost and composition of the force over the next five years. However, the publicly released FYDP suffers from important limitations: there is tension between expressing Administration preferences and accurate projection; no confidence intervals or other measures of reliability are provided; predictable budget elements have been transferred beyond the scope of the FYDP; and the detailed investment projections are challenging to gather and employ. This project works to make the FYDP more accessible and more easily evaluated. It posits two hypotheses using FY 2018 budget request data: first that FYDP projections could estimate actual 2019 spending more reliably than the President’s Budget alone, and second that the reliability of projections would vary between services. The simple regression model employed found that the two year out FYDP projections significantly improved the reliability of estimates for procurement line items and RDT&E program elements.
Description: Acquisition Management / Sponsored Report
URI: https://dair.nps.edu/handle/123456789/4501
Appears in Collections:Sponsored Acquisition Research & Technical Reports

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