Leads vs. Canvassing: Predicting Quality and Attrition of Enlistees by Recruiting Source

Abstract

The Marine Corps trains recruiters to support their success in finding the best, brightest, and most capable young adults to serve as Marines. Marine recruiters must determine which recruiting methods and sources of information best support them in canvassing their local areas for prospective enlistees to reach their recruiting goals. This study examines how the quality of a prospective enlistee differs based on the recruiter’s initial contact modality. Linear probability models are used to analyze data from Marine Corps Recruiting Command’s (MCRC) Marine Corps Recruiting Information Support System for enlistees who joined the Delayed Entry Program from FY2015 to FY2019. The findings are robust when controlling for recruiters’ rank and geographic location. This analysis provides a foundation for the discussion on whether Marine Corps recruiters should shift toward or away from specific methods on prospecting for enlistees.