Stated Intentions vs Actual Behavior: Choice-Based Conjoint (CBC) in DoD Source Selections

Abstract

Current source selection procedures have exposed the Department of Defense (DoD) to increased protest risk. This, in part, is due to contradictions in the U.S. government’s stated order of importance for acquisition evaluation criteria (pre-award) versus their actual choice behavior during source selection (Butler, 2014). The objectives of this MBA project included the following:

1) Determine the degree of disconnect between stated preferences during pre-award acquisition phase and actual choice behavior in source selections 2) Develop an understanding of quality attributes for logistics-based services 3) Provide a Choice-Based Conjoint (CBC) framework that could be utilized to enhance source selection criteria development

Methodology included interviews and spend analysis techniques to identify quality attributes of logistics-based acquisitions. Then, after the attributes were identified, they were employed to develop a CBC model that calculated the attribute utilities and relative importance for each attribute. Using these important scores, the disconnect between stated preferences and choice behavior was found. None of the subjects in this investigative study could accurately order attribute importance in stated form to match their actual choices in simulated source selections. This author offers a framework and methods to mitigate the weaknesses found in developing evaluation attribute importance from stated preferences and reduce the risks of protests.