Predictive Variables and Career Paths for Selection to Lieutenant Colonel Command withing the Marine Corps

Abstract

In this thesis, I study the predictive variables and career paths associated with selection to lieutenant colonel command within the Marine Corps. Previous research analyzed the lieutenant colonel command screening board (CSB), but none have focused on an officer’s career path and its effect on lieutenant colonel command selection. First, I determine the variables associated for selection to lieutenant colonel in three different populations contained within the data. I then analyze which career paths for the infantry, artillery, tank, and assault amphibious vehicle officer military occupational specialties (MOS) are predictive for selection to lieutenant colonel command. I applied logit multivariate models to CSB data from FY 2015 and FY 2017–2022 to determine these variables and career paths. My findings suggest command selection is associated with physical fitness, Fitness Report evaluations, and resident major professional military education. Regarding predictive career paths, captains who fill a b-billet associated with their primary MOS have an increased probability of selection for lieutenant colonel command. Individual b-billets positively correlated with command selection include Tactical Training Exercise Control Group as a captain, Expeditionary Warfare School instructor as a major, and a Recruiting Station Commanding Officer. Additionally, possessing the additional MOSs of Operational Planner is positively correlated with lieutenant colonel command selection.