Rising Demands and Proliferating Supply: The Future of the Global UAS Market

Abstract

To understand the trends and implications of this proliferation, this report asks three questions: (1) What countries are driving the increase in demand? (2) How has the supply of military UAS changed? (3) How is the U.S. defense industrial base positioned to support U.S. foreign policy goals in this new environment? The report addresses these questions with quantitative analyses of global UAS and loitering munition transfers and contract spending by the U.S. government on UAS, enabled by a groundbreaking labeling effort. Across these analyses, the paper reaches three broad conclusions. First, UAS and loitering munitions offer a wide range of capabilities to a growing range of states. Second, countries now have a range of alternatives for acquiring UAS and loitering munitions. Third, the United States has increased its exports of UAS but with a comparatively greater focus on wealthy trusted allies compared to other weapon platforms.