Cream Skimming or Barrel Scraping? An Analysis of Lateral Career Moves amongst Marine Corps Officers

Abstract

"Force Design 2030 and subsequent associated directives have ushered in significant changes across the Marine Corps, both in personnel and equipment. One of the greatest personnel changes is the emphasis on lateral moves, in which Marines shift from one primary military occupational specialty to another. These lateral moves allow the service to align interest and talent to address manpower deficiencies. In this thesis, I analyze performance records of Marine Corps Ground Officers from 1999 to 2022 and employ regression analysis to examine pre- and post-move performance trends of officers who undertake lateral moves. This analysis aims to determine whether these moves are characterized by “cream skimming,” with high performers leaving certain fields, or by “barrel scraping,” with low performers moving. My research indicates that from 1999 to 2006 there was a modest but statistically significant negative trend in performance of those opting for lateral moves relative to their peers who did not. However, these effects were not observed during more recent time periods. Further regression results indicate a mostly negative, but statistically insignificant coefficient for performance among those who lateral move, indicating no substantial difference between them and their peers who remain in their original field. Furthermore, those that execute a lateral move tend to receive performance evaluations comparable to their peers in their new job field immediately after a lateral move."