Determining the Value of Less Lethal Weapons through Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

With the Navy and Marine Corps shifting their focus towards the Pacific Theater, there arises a crucial question: Do the operational forces possess the requisite less lethal weapon (LLW) capabilities to effectively execute various mission types such as stability operations, counterinsurgency, noncombatant evacuation operations, or policing operations? Especially in contested environments, the ability to swiftly transition from less-lethal to lethal force may become imperative. While there is a growing interest in deploying efficient LLWs, research indicates that the available capabilities are perceived as cumbersome. Introducing a single-shot attachment that facilitates rapid transition from less lethal to lethal force could furnish the DOD and other governmental bodies with a capability that fills the void in the continuum of force, thereby fostering increased trust from civilian populations, reducing lethality, diminishing legal expenses, and potentially yielding other unforeseen benefits. Utilizing Monte Carlo stochastic modeling of police violence data, interviewing subject matter experts, and applying a RAND logic model, the perceived value of LLWs was assessed. Stochastic modeling demonstrates that single-shot bullet-capture projectile attachments can generate a return on investment of up to 1800%. Given the uncertainties faced by military forces and civil law enforcement agencies, this capability enhancement will augment a unit’s capacity to fulfill its mission.