Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://dair.nps.edu/handle/123456789/4873
Title: Guiding the Hands of Time: Toward Reliable Schedule Estimates
Authors: Charles Pickar, Raymond Franck
Keywords: Program Management
Acquisition Schedules
Data Science
dynamic systems
schedule estimating methods
Issue Date: 1-May-2023
Publisher: Acquisition Research Program
Citation: APA
Series/Report no.: Acquisition Management;SYM-AM-23-106
Abstract: This paper continues our research agenda concerning advancing the state of the art for estimating defense acquisition program schedules. Accurate schedule estimates provide valuable benchmarks for program managers and reliable dates for the availability of new systems for warfighters. However, most schedule estimates are not correct, with actual time to complete significantly greater initial estimates. This happens for several reasons. One of them is the inherent complexity of modern defense acquisition programs. Another is the generally unfavorable influence of factors outside the program (and program management control). While achieving improved estimates is worthwhile, we also conclude that accurate estimates are generally unobtainable. However, we remain convinced that improvements are possible, which benefit all concerned.
Description: Proceedings Paper
URI: https://dair.nps.edu/handle/123456789/4873
Appears in Collections:Annual Acquisition Research Symposium Proceedings & Presentations

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